Bargain Buys: Election Sales Slump a Win for Consumers
If you’re planning on buying a new car in coming months, it’s a perfect storm with the federal election coming up, prices dropping and dealers desperate to make sales quotas. Here’s what you need to know…
All the ideal conditions are here in the Australian new car market, ready for savvy consumers like you to take full advantage. The stage is set.
Commercially, it’s a grand alignment of the planets where dealers are going to be desperate to sell, the established brands are facing serious challenges from the upstart Chinese brands, and now there’s an election in five weeks (May 3).
There really hasn’t been a better time in years to stride purposefully into a dealership and make a properly low-balling offer on the car you’ve been thinking about. This report is a guide on how and why you should be getting ready to do that.
ESTABLISHED BRANDS
Car retail operations in Australia live month to month.
Overseas, at the head office level, they don’t want to hear excuses, just big, juicy sales figures because all they want is to sell cars. And for some mainstream brands, sales have sucked for quite some time. That’s according to sales data supplied by the FCAI, at least.
In 2024, big brands took a hit to total annual sales compared with 2023. For example, Hyundai was down 4.7 per cent, Jeep fell off a cliff at 48 per cent down, Mazda staggered by 4 per cent, MG was down 13 per cent, Volkswagen down 11 per cent, Skoda down 37 per cent and Audi down 19 per cent, Subaru dropped 11 per cent, even Lexus took a 10 per cent hit and there are plenty more.
The start of 2025 hasn’t been kind to many brands either. Compared with the same time in 2024:
BWM’s down 4 per cent;
Ford is down 5 per cent and had a February 12 per cent worse than Feb ‘24;
Honda is down 18 per cent compared with the first two months of ‘24;
Isuzu Ute is down 33 per cent;
LDV’s down 26 per cent;
MG is down 11 per cent and had a February that sucked 16 per cent more than in ‘24.
The list goes on:
Nissan is down 29 per cent to start 2025;
Suzuki’s down 25 per cent;
Subaru’s down 6 per cent;
Mitsubishi is down 4 per cent;
Even Toyota took a 0.1 per cent hiccup - barely breaking even is very un-Toyota and perhaps affirmation that the big carmakers are under pressure.
As of March, 2025, things are very tough in dealerships and therefore, the time is right to get yourself a bargain. Below is a viable short list of good carmakers doing it tough.
GOOD BRANDS, TOUGH TIMES
SUBARU
Crosstrek sales are down 1.6 per cent for the first two months of ‘25 while being down 10 per cent for February (compared with Feb ‘24) specifically. Forester is down 6 per cent for the year so far and 3 per cent for Feb, while Outback is the same: down 13 per cent in both respects.
MITSUBISHI
Pajero Sport is in serious runout at the moment with the arrival of an all-new version in late 2025, so there are big savings to be made here considering sales are down 35 per cent thus far in the year (compared with ‘24). They did also just have a huge stock clearance sale before Christmas, so any Pajero Sports still sitting in the dealership might be a bargain as they try to get rid of it. It’s a similar story for Eclipse Cross, down 21 per cent and again with a new version coming in the next few months.
Triton, ASX and Outlander are all going okay, but Triton is only 2 per cent up on 2024’s sales, so you might still be able to apply some pressure to get a better price knowing that dual-cab 4X4 utes and the brand itself are 9 per cent and 4 per cent respectively (to the end of Feb).
HYUNDAI
The former second-placed most popular brand in Australia has slowly dropped further down the top 10 list to position 6 in 2025. Coincidence that this slide has happened since going hard on hybrids and ditching their diesels? Hyundai only has one vehicle in the top 10 models, the Kona, in 10th place as of Feb.
Tucson is down 9 per cent so far in 2025 while also being down 12 per cent for February compared with Feb ‘24. The Palisade, with a new version coming in the second-half of 2025, is down 28 per cent thus far while Santa Fe is doing quite well so you could absolutely use that in your negotiating tactics: You might hate the super-square look of the Santa Fe and you need a diesel Palisade, but this one in stock is the wrong colour.
Check out good deals on i30 sedan and hatch, sales of which are down 44 per cent for the start of 2025, and were down 36 per cent in Feb compared with in 2024. Sonata sales are also terrible, down 32 per cent to start the year, and Staria people mover sales were down 9 per cent for February.
BWM
The reasonably good brand for customer support among the big German three is off to a shocker in 2025. The 3 Series is down 38 per cent, the 4 Series is down a massive 72 per cent, the X3 is down 11 per cent (instead of being one of its most popular models) and the X4 has struggled with 43 per cent fewer sales compared with 2024. Even big-ticket Beemers aren’t immune, like the X5, BWM’s hero SUV, down by 5 per cent, and the X7, down 12 per cent.
Target these models and stare the sales person in the eye when you make your offer, leave your card and walk if they’re wasting your time. A day later, or even that afternoon, the price might become a bit more malleable.
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SUZUKI
The Jimny, a terrible vehicle by most modern standards, remains unfazed and up 7 per cent thanks to a recent model range improvement to include a long wheelbase version. That’s the pull of simple, affordable off-roaders with clout.
Elsewhere however, Suzuki is struggling. The Ignis is aging on the showroom floor which is why it’s down 50 per cent in 2025, while the S-Cross is down nearly 6 per cent, the Vitara is down by 2 per cent and the swift is down 36 per cent despite being a decent, bare-bones little car running premium petrol - in a market segment that actually improved by 8 per cent.
Meaning, Yaris, Mazda2 MG3 and Kia Picanto have all gained sales. Swift also had a terrible February, down 42 per cent. Haggle hard a snag a bargain Suzuki.
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WHAT’S HAPPENING TO THE BIG BRANDS?
Among popular mainstream carmakers, plenty of brands are fighting to make sales quotas, and it’s not just because of the so-called cost-of-living crisis which doesn’t actually affect new car buyers, generally. If you’re buying a new car, you’re not struggling, you’re doing okay, or possibly very well.
What’s causing these brands to faulter is market fracturing and consumer confidence. Let’s look at what’s happening with some of these big brands fighting (and losing) for that slice of consumer pie.
SUBARU
Subaru had sales fall 12 per cent last year, and they’re down a further six per cent this year. This explains why the local distributor, Inchcape, is latching onto any brand, such as Deepal, in a desperate attempt to mitigate the bleeding.
Subaru is an example of why you need to stop thinking of yourself as a car buyer and get serious about saving some money on a new car. If you are hungry enough for a bargain, Subaru is looking like lunch. And those cars, like Outback, Forester and Crosstrek are looking pretty good value: proper all-wheel drive, reliable, robust, practical. (They are being held back by Toyota beancounters, but they’re not dead yet.) Make a low offer, and walk if they don’t take it.
HYUNDAI
Another tasty mainstream offering is Hyundai, with good cars, but incrementally crap long-term sales. They were pretty flat in 2023 (just 2.5 per cent up in a market that rose 12.5 per cent). So, losing ground there in real terms of market share.
Last year, Hyundai was down five per cent (that’s 3500 fewer cars sold, thanks very much). And this year so far: another three per cent in the hole.
Head office is very unsympathetic when it comes to sales trajectories like this, especially as Kia is doing better, and as we all know, take the badges off and they’re virtually identical in the fundamentals like powertrain and chassis.
So, don’t be pushed over (metaphorically) by some Hyundai dealer about not discounting or the ‘take it or leave it’ strategy. Whatever the number is they’re expecting, subtract 10 per cent, and if they don’t cave in, walk out the door and tell them you’ll be going to the Hyundai dealer in the next suburb. Or even worse, Kia. (They hate that.)
MG
Now, to the first big upstart Chinese brand, Morris Garages, AKA MG.
MG rocketed into the top 10 several years ago, posting an 18 per cent gain in 2023 by selling 58,000 cars - impressive by today’s standards. There are brands with untold pedigree that have never made those kinds of numbers, not even Jeep at the peak of its powers in 2014 could manage that.
But most of that gain was wiped away last year as MG sales tilted 13 per cent down to roughly 50,000 sales. Still respectable, but a pretty big drop. And it’s not over yet, with sales down a further 12 per cent so far in 2025.
CHERY
It probably doesn’t help that more Chinese upstarts such as Geely, Leapmotor, Jaecoo, JAC, Deepal and Zeekr are out of the blocks, and the most popular of these unheard of Chinese carmakers is Chery.
Chery is on a roll, posting a massive 114 per cent gain last year, and backing that up with a 185 per cent gain so far this year. You’ll start seeing Chery dealership spaces popping up next to lots of bigger established brands as those dealerships start seeing popularity increase.
Chery sold almost 4000 cars in the first two months of 2025. That’s 4000 cars the likes of MG didn’t/couldn’t sell. But MG is going to have to compete harder if it wants to maintain volume - because competition just got real.
NISSAN
Although Nissan has been in a downward spiral for many years now, with slowly dwindling sales that have seen them drop from mid-pack of the top 10 brands to now at risk of dropping out of it entirely in position 9, they have had a recent bounce-back thanks largely to the news of the new Patrol coming in 2026 and the demise of the V8.
Much like Holden, the news of the next Patrol getting bi-turbo V6 propulsion has seen a groundswell of consumers desperate from the ‘last of the V8s’ brigade, which is a fair sentiment as it’s basically Nissan’s only decent, reliable product on sale, which was designed back in Nissan’s heyday the late 2000s/early 2010s.
Don’t try negotiating too hard at Nissan right now, not that AutoExpert recommends ever buying a Nissan thanks to the company’s sub-standard customer support culture over the years. But being up in sales 4.8 per cent for 2025 and up 3.7 per cent for Feb means getting a bargain won’t be easy.
It could be a blessing in disguise if you were considering a Qashqai, Juke, X-trail or Pathfinder.
The same here goes for the likes of Toyota, Mazda, Ford, Kia, and GWM, all of which have had a pretty good start to 2025. However, the upcoming election will likely see their sales boon slow while people hesitate making big financial decisions before choosing the never government to run the lolly stand.
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ISUZU UTE
D-Max and MU-X sales are off the pace a little so far this year, but only off the back of strong performances in 2023 and 2024, so they might still be pretty solid.
But if you talk about the fact you’re tossing up between a Pajero Sport and Ford Everest, or Ranger or Triton, and they might be less keen to see you walk out.
Given that Isuzu Ute is under commercial pressure thanks to the new vehicle emissions scheme brought in by the government, making as many sales as possible with their two-vehicle inventory might incentivise the dealer to get closer to your ideal price.
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BMW
Also pretty solid, more or less, but that’s mainly because Audi is a joke in Australia, and Mercedes-Benz has turned itself into an easy boycott.
Mercedes did this to itself thanks to its coveted ‘fixed price promise’, an anti-consumer tactic which they took as marketing opportunity to suggest you had been freed of the hassle of haggling. Except in reality they’d simply removed price negotiation from the consumer’s grasp in 2022, burning a lot of brand goodwill at the same time.
So if you’re wise and you do have the cash, it’s either BMW for the cachet and the performance, or Lexus for the reliability and the customer care. Lexus is looking reasonably robust in terms of sales desperation at dealer level, too. But the election is imminent, so it’s worth a shot.
HONDA
Speaking of price fixing, Honda’s still a joke, managing to sell only 14,000 cars in 2024. (Compared with 51,500 in 2018.) I honestly don’t know why they bother. Sales down 19 per cent so far this year, too. Looking about as commercially viable as Holden…
STELLANTIS: JEEP, FIAT, (Leapmotor), RAM
Anything from Stellantis, such as Jeep: Do you really want to do that to yourself? Just buy a decent Japanese or South Korean vehicle, and save the money.
RAM sales have taken a bit of a turn in 2025, having sold nearly 7000 RAMs in 2023, but only about 4000 last year. That’s a drop of 43 per cent.
Maybe the twin-turbo inline six isn’t as well received by true blue cashed-up bogans as the V8 it replaced (despite the six’s superior performance). Silverado sales are up, though, and that’s gotta be part of it. 2400 of those doesn’t help RAM. Nor does almost 2400 F-150s.
So, maybe your local RAM dealer is a bit of a soft target right about now. These are big-ticket trucks, too, so there’s a lot of margin in them. And that dealer has invested a lot in the franchise, based on ‘target X’ volume (whatever X is).
So, if the actual number of sales achieved is less than target X, like minus F-truck and minus Silverado, they might be amenable to a little bit of negotiation, just to keep some cash rolling in.
Advice there is, if you see a RAM on the showroom floor, that dealer owns it. But it’s burning a hole in his pocket the longer it takes to sell it. So low-ball it, because what have you got to lose? If his response to your very generous (but low) offer involves buggering off, tell him you’ll just go check out the Z-71 and the F-Truck.
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CONCLUSION: ELECTION DISFUNCTION
There’s always uncertainty about an election, understandably, but it’s mostly an over-reaction. In three months’ time the new prime minister is still going to be a politician from a major party and the country will keep on ticking.
Either way it’ll be Albo or Dutton, who are flipsides of the same coin. Building wind farms and/or fellating the coal and gas industry while they feather their own nests and throw regular Aussies under the bus.
Cars will still be selling and consumers will still be buying.
If you’ve got the money and your plan is or was to buy a new car soon, execute that plan soon. Sales will stall for the next few weeks and dealer desperation will reach dizzying new heights. It’s beautiful.
Be that low-balling, deal-driven car buyer whom you’ve always dreamed of being. Go to the dealership with not one single care in the world - and then fill in the form on this website, or click the red button below. We can probably smash whatever price you manage, which should help put money back in your pocket. Just saying.
There hasn’t been this much pressure on car dealers since before the stock shortages brought to you by the pandemic. It’s a disturbance in The Force. So use it.
Channel your latent car-buying Jedi today, and finally buy that new car you’ve longed for.
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