Should I buy a Toyota, Subaru or something else entirely?

QUESTION

Hi John,

I’m a 70yo retiree looking for “my last car” and while I had wanted it to be a little more luxury than mainstream, today’s auto environment (high prices, low availability, and accelerating EV uptake) seems to be making it almost impossible. I am in regional NSW and still intend to travel, both intra and interstate, often.

I am not keen to wait 2+ years for either a RAV4 or an NX 350h (or however long before Subaru brings an Outback hybrid to Australia), so will choose an ICE. I suspect I have up to 10 years to enjoy my driving and have been, until very recently, a caravanner. But I have now sold my ‘van and tow vehicle and am looking for a safe, reliable, and comfortable replacement.

I have been told that “we” are not yet ready to become a one-car family, and we have just ordered - through AutoExpert - a Subaru Forester, which will be delivered in April. This will replace our 2015 Toyota Camry. But this still leaves a need to find a replacement for the tow vehicle. I realise there will still be a market for used petrol cars in Australia, although it will possibly be quite restricted if I hold this 2023 vehicle until, say 2030, and I don’t want to have to give it away at that time.

Should I therefore change my approach to the market, and look again at a mainstream vehicle, rather than the more expensive luxury car, meaning I have less to lose at the time of disposal?

I have also considered that I might be better off not thinking of this next vehicle as a 10-year proposition, but instead selling it after only a few years when it becomes clearer where the auto market in Australia is going. (Perhaps when there will be more charging stations and more EVs to choose from.)

Also, I have read that Lexus, in particular, is moving away from ICE cars very rapidly, so I worry about the eventual loss of capability to maintain these engines.

I would really appreciate your views: I know you don’t tell viewers what to buy, but I have looked at numerous makes and models of both luxury and mainstream and for me, these two vehicles tick a lot of boxes (safety, reliability, comfort, value, performance).

Am I overthinking the decision? Is the decision to buy EV or not to buy EV unnecessary for the next few years?

I love your work, John, you know what you’re talking about, and there’s no BS. Keep it up.

Noel

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ANSWER

Hello Noel,

Thanks for the kind words below. Basically I think you are approaching this all wrong.

High-spec mainstream cars are, today, essentially, luxury cars. They are preposterously well equipped and refined. Look at a Hyundai Tucson Highlander, for example.

Subaru is losing the plot (mainly because Toyota’s beancounters are calling the shots, increasingly). It’s fortunate they do an excellent job of customer support, up there with Hyundai and Kia.

But Toyota has lost the plot. They can’t even build cars now. It’s a complete joke. (It’s because they slashed costs by leveraging the whole supply chain on Chinese components.) Many carmakers are in this position to some degree. Toyota is highly affected. And they’re not that good - Toyota is the King of Mediocrity, but among caravaners, the brand is virtually a religion.

Hybrids are poor for highway driving - there’s very little opportunity to do their energy management voodoo (regenerative braking).

If you’re going to drive interstate a lot, buy a diesel, obviously.

Even if EV charging infrastructure improves dramatically in the regions, you’re still going to have to stop every 300km for an hour, in practise.

With respect on this hypothesis regarding the obsolescence of ICE: There are 20 million vehicles in Australia. The average age is just shy of 11 years.

If they sell 333,000 hybrids and EVs annually for the next 12 years (ridiculously high estimate - roughly one in 3 vehicles sold), that’s 4 million. Meaning four out of five vehicles on the road will still be internal combustion. Hybrids will still be poor at regional travel, EVs will still suck at it (no new battery tech in the wings there), trucks will still all be diesel.

This perception of yours is understandable - but it’s fuelled by media, car industry and political hype, not facts.

Buy the car that suits your needs. (The purpose of owning a vehicle is transportation, not resale value - they all suck, at resale value, historically.)

Go for a test drive in a diesel Hyundai Tucson Highlander (full Tucson buyer’s guide here >>).

Hope this helps, despite the fact that I haven’t spent all that much time agreeing with you.

Best regards,

JC

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